Will prediction markets change how we bet on golf?
With a couple of Majors on the horizon heading into July, there will be plenty of golf fans placing a wager on the likes of Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy to get their hands on more silverware.
Golf betting is somewhat unique in its mechanics. There is probably no sport quite like it where longshots can win with as much regularity. Yes, the cream usually rises to the top, but there are always instances where a big-price winner comes to the fore.
Consider Aaron Rai’s PGA Championship win in May: The Englishman was available at almost +20000 (two hundred to one) before winning his first Major at the Aronimink Golf Club in Pennsylvania.
Golf betting could be transformed
But could golf betting be disrupted? You’ve probably been hearing a lot about prediction markets recently, which, among other things, let you approach sports as a trade. So, the premise is effectively changed.
In the simplest terms, sports prediction markets frame events as trades with a yes or no outcome. For example, it might be something like: “Will Rory McIlroy win The 2026 Open?” People trade both sides, wagering on yes or no. The odds, as such, are determined by the volume of money backing each side of the trade.
The popularity of these markets has risen rapidly. Earlier this year, DraftKings launched its new prediction markets online site, and within a few months, it reported $1.3 billion in trading. Its stock price soared as a result, according to Yahoo Finance. You can trade other things, ranging from financials to politics, but sports seem to be catching the eye.
Trading in a PvP market
So, what’s the big attraction? First of all, it is a question of an organic market. DraftKings, for example, does not influence the price of the market. It is all based on money coming on either side of the trade. With a traditional betting market, you are betting against the sportsbook. In this scenario, you are betting against other golf fans.
It is not always the case that the odds will be better on a prediction platform compared to a sportsbook, but it can be. In fact, that is basically the “art” of what you are aiming to do. Sometimes, the crowd doesn’t lend full credence to what the sportsbooks lay out in traditional odds, so they’ll take a different spin on things. As a bettor, you are tasked with picking the option that gives you the most value.
Arguably, prediction markets have been buoyed by the social, community aspect. It makes a more compelling social media post to say something like, “Scheffler has a 30% chance of winning a Major this year” than it does to talk about the odds of doing so. With the former, you are basically saying, “This is what the people think,” rather than posting an abstract algorithmic calculation.
In the end, it is arguable that sportsbooks and prediction markets will end up complementing each other rather than rivaling one another. As we said, it can be the case where odds are more generous on sportsbooks, and vice versa. But if you’re betting on golf, it provides an extra option for comparison. If you have your picks and have two options – prediction markets or sportsbooks – it’s a no-brainer.