Everything Oklahomans need to know about prediction markets and golf

For almost as long as golf has existed, golfers have been wagering money on the outcome. Whether it’s a round of skins between friends, or using a traditional sportsbook to bet on the pros, swapping pieces of the action has long been a part of clubhouse camaraderie. 

Now, though, there’s a new way for Oklahomans to back the professionals: prediction markets. These are fully accessible across Oklahoma, and offer a range of ways to trade on individual golfers, tour events, and the Majors. 

Some readers may have heard of prediction markets before, while for others this might be the first time. Don’t worry either way, as this article will cover everything Oklahomans need to know about how prediction markets work, what sets them apart from sportsbooks, and what options there are for golf. 

How do prediction markets work? 

At a traditional sportsbook, all bets are made against the house. With prediction markets, however, every position is taken against other users. This means that rather than playing against the prediction market itself, it’s always against peers. 

This is done by trading contracts on the different outcomes for an event. Each one will have a binary “Yes” and “No” option, and prediction market users–known as traders–purchase contracts based on which outcome they think will happen. 

The sum of each of these Yes/No contracts is always $1. Sometimes when using a prediction market, you may notice that the Yes and No don’t add up exactly to $1, but don’t worry. This is known as the bid-ask spread, which simply reflects the gap between what buyers want to pay and what sellers want to accept. . 

After you find the right market, you’ll see the price you’ll pay for your contracts. For instance, the Yes market could be 16¢, and the No market 86¢. This is the price each trader is paying for their contracts. 

Once the event is resolved, the correct contracts are all worth $1, and the incorrect ones $0. A winning contract bought at 86¢ would therefore return 14¢ profit per contract when resolved to $1. Should the 16¢ option be correct, it will resolve with a nice 84¢ profit per contract. 

To put this another way, a $10 purchase at 16¢ per share would give 62.5 shares in the outcome. If this resolves as a win, it would pay out $62.50. This returns the original $10 trade, plus $52.50 in profit. 

For this to work, it needs plenty of traders to take up contracts and put money into markets. That’s why Vegas Insider, the leader in sports betting odds and picks, recommends using the world’s biggest prediction market. 

This way of exchanging contracts also makes it easy to see what the crowd thinks the outcome of an event will be. To go back to the contract values discussed earlier, a 16¢ Yes contract implies there’s a 16% chance that the traders think it will happen. 

What you can and can’t find on prediction markets

There are always plenty of golf markets available on prediction markets. From which players will make the cut or win a tournament, down to futures such as the golfer to win the next Major, there are plenty of options. A good rule of thumb is that if you’d expect to see a market at a traditional sportsbook, you can likely to find it on a prediction market. 

The only major difference is that the markets are usually posted later on prediction sites. This is to ensure each market is properly seeded with the liquidity it needs to run. 

One thing that is missing from prediction markets is college golf. Oklahoma has a pair of spectacular golf programs, however traders won’t be able to take positions on Sooners or Cowboys golf. Other top college sports such as football and basketball are available, though. 

Whether an experienced trader, or just starting out at prediction sites, the overwhelming thing to remember is to trade responsibly. While they’re good fun and can provide some nice returns, there is still a risk involved. Always stick to budget, make educated trades, and understand when it’s time to stop.