154th Open Championship field at Royal Birkdale, ranked from favorites to long shots

One hundred and fifty-six players will compete in the 154th Open Championship at Royal Birkdale Golf Club, the final men’s major of the 2026 season. According to NBC Sports, the field spans world-class favorites, credible sleepers, and qualifier stories that would not feel out of place in fiction. Royal Birkdale returns as host for the first time since 2017, and the ranking of that full field — from outright contenders down to true long shots — reveals just how compressed the talent has become at the top of men’s golf.

The Favorites Tier Holds Unusual Depth

Rory McIlroy leads the field ranking as the reigning back-to-back Masters champion. His lone Open title came in 2014, and he posted a T-4 at Royal Birkdale in 2017. A T-7 at the Genesis Scottish Open in the lead-up week signals his game is close without being conclusive.

Scottie Scheffler sits second. The current world No. 1 and reigning Open champion suffered his first missed cut in nearly four years just before the championship week, but that early exit gave him additional practice time on a course he had never previously played. Scheffler arrives defending his title on unfamiliar ground, which adds a layer of uncertainty that his ranking alone does not capture.

Tommy Fleetwood is ranked third. A Southport native, he grew up close enough to Royal Birkdale to know the ground underfoot. His first PGA Tour title came at the Tour Championship last August, and he arrives seeking his first major on the course closest to home.

Matt Fitzpatrick, ranked fourth, enters 2026 with three wins already on his card. The 2022 U.S. Open champion, a second major title at Royal Birkdale would confirm a pattern of performing in the game’s biggest events.

Xander Schauffele, ranked eighth, carries what the source describes as one of the best major records in the entire field — 17 top 10s in 37 career major starts, with the 2024 Open and PGA Championships among his two major titles. Consistency in majors at that rate is genuinely rare.

Jon Rahm, ranked seventh, complicates the tier’s neatness. His 2026 includes two LIV circuit wins, but his major record this year has been uneven — a T-38 at the Masters, a T-2 at the PGA Championship, and a missed cut at the U.S. Open. LIV’s schedule carries an extended break heading into The Open, meaning Rahm arrives with fresh legs but questions about competitive sharpness.

Tiers, Pricing Gaps, and the Lithuanian Betting Market

Martynas Norvilas, a longtime observer of Lithuania’s gambling market and gaming industry specialist, notes that the tier structure embedded in any major field ranking maps directly onto how outright markets assign pricing to each player. The favorites command compressed returns; everyone beneath them offers proportionally wider value. Where that gap becomes most meaningful, he argues, is in the sleeper band — players ranked around tenth through twelfth, carrying genuine wins and proven form but sitting clearly outside the first-tier conversation.

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“The players ranked just outside the top tier are where the structural interest lies. They have the wins to contend, but the market hasn’t priced them like favorites. That gap tells you something about where the real tension in the field sits.”

Norvilas draws the observation from players like Cameron Young and Chris Gotterup — both of whom have won enough in 2026 to warrant attention, yet neither occupies the top tier. That is precisely where outright pricing tends to diverge most sharply from actual contention probability.

The Sleeper Tier Carries Genuine Contention Credentials

Cameron Young, ranked tenth, won his first Tour title at the Wyndham Championship last fall and followed that with wins at The Players and the Cadillac this spring. His links record is established — runner-up at The Open in 2022, T-8 in 2023. Young has not won a major, but his record at this specific event makes him a different proposition than a first-time links visitor.

Chris Gotterup arrives ranked 12th with three Tour wins in 2026. His most recent came at the John Deere Classic two weeks before The Open, and a T-11 at the Scottish Open in the lead-up week signals form that did not fade after that win. The timing of his current run is difficult to ignore.

Sam Burns, ranked 11th, carries perhaps the most personal subplot in this tier. He was widely expected to skip the championship because of the imminent birth of his second child, yet he appeared in Southport after finishing runner-up at the U.S. Open. His presence alone changes what could have been a straightforward week into something with considerably more weight behind it.

Rahm, already described in the favorites tier, bridges both conversations. His T-2 at the PGA Championship confirms he can contend when his game arrives, and LIV’s extended break before The Open may work in his favor or against it, depending on what that time produced.

Qualifier Stories and a Champion Returning Without a Win

Jordan Spieth won the 2017 Open at Royal Birkdale — his third and most recent major title. Now 32, he has managed only two Tour victories in the nearly nine years since. He spoke plainly about his situation this week.

“I’m quite frustrated with the results considering I know where my game is at. It’s better than it was four or five years ago when I got back to top 10 in the world. It’s without a doubt better than it was then; it’s just not quite showing up in results.”

That frustration sits alongside a fact that cuts both ways — Royal Birkdale is where Spieth last felt like himself in a major. Familiarity with a venue does not guarantee a result, but it gives him a foothold that most of the field does not carry.

Fleetwood, when asked about the possibility of winning The Open on the same day England claims a World Cup title, offered a response that was brief and direct.

“That would be a great day.”

At the bottom of the field, Joe Dean claims the most striking individual story. He won the 12-man Last Chance Qualifier at Royal Birkdale to claim the final spot in the 156-player field. It will be his third Open start — he posted a T-70 in 2017 and a T-25 in 2024. His fiancée Emily is caddying for him this week, and the pair are due to marry the following Tuesday in Worksop, roughly two hours away.

Dean’s wedding sits days after the final round. Fleetwood plays a links course that runs through his hometown. Spieth returns to the last place where a major felt within reach. A major champion will emerge from this field by Sunday, and across all 156 players, the human stakes pressing against that outcome are as varied as the ranking tiers themselves.